The Refunding Statement from the Treasury suggests the possibility of issuing more bonds in the more easily tradeable sections of the yield curve.

The U.S. Treasury has released its refunding statement, providing some relief for bond holders. The statement reveals that the Treasury expects net marketable borrowing of $776 billion in Q1 FY 2024, which is lower than the previous forecast due to higher receipts and higher outlays. While most market watchers focus on the Fed’s FOMC meeting, fixed income investors are paying attention to the Treasury’s borrowing plans. These plans help investors position themselves and their portfolios in bond market investments. The Treasury is offering $112 billion in Treasury securities to refund maturing Treasury notes, raising new cash of approximately $9.8 billion from private investors. The securities include a three-year note, a 10-year note, and a 30-year bond. The Treasury acknowledges the significant fluctuations in yields, particularly in the 10-year and two-year Treasury yields, and attributes these fluctuations to various factors. The report emphasizes the importance of flexibility in the Treasury’s issuance strategy and suggests considering increased issuance in more liquid parts of the yield curve.