To gain an advantage, here’s what you need to be aware of today.
There is a significant buying opportunity coming up.
Refer to this chart of iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) by clicking here.
Here are the key points to note:
– The chart confirms that The Arora Report’s call on August 2 was accurate and well-timed.
– The chart clearly shows the sharp decline in TLT.
– The chart also indicates that the volume of the recent drop was a record, suggesting potential capitulation. Buying during capitulation can be profitable, but there are other important indicators to consider. For more detailed information, listen to the podcast titled “The Ten Secrets Of Epic Capitulation Riches” in the Arora Ambassador Club.
– The RSI on the chart reveals that TLT is oversold and starting to rebound. This suggests that if the macro data is favorable, TLT could experience a rapid increase in value.
– According to The Arora Report’s analysis, short interest in bonds is currently at its highest level ever. If the macro data is positive, TLT could see a major short squeeze and subsequent rise in value.
– However, it’s important to note that all of these factors are only short-term considerations. The Arora Report has a negative long-term view on bonds due to high levels of debt, deficits, and persistent inflation.
– Weak data from Automatic Data Processing Inc (NASDAQ:ADP) is causing a boost in bond prices and subsequently, stock prices.
– There are three upcoming data releases that have the potential to significantly impact TLT and the stock market.
– The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index will be released today at 10 am ET, with a consensus of 53.7.
– Initial claims will be released at 8:30 am ET on October 5, with a consensus of 225K. This data is a leading indicator and carries significant weight in the ZYX Asset Allocation Model.
– The jobs report will be released at 8:30 am ET on October 6, with a consensus for non-farm private payrolls of 150K and a consensus for the headline figure of 158K.
– If the economic data favors a rise in bonds, the year-end chase in the market will begin. If this chase leads to an upward trend, there could be a major rally and buying opportunity in the stock market. However, there are no guarantees, so it’s crucial to stay informed about new data as it becomes available. Having an understanding of market mechanics can provide a significant advantage. A podcast titled “Market Mechanics: Gain An Edge From Year End Chase” will be available in the Arora Ambassador Club today for those seeking more advanced information.
– As a course of action, the best approach is to stay within the protection band, which offers a balanced response to various market factors. Scroll down to see the details of the protection band.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows:
– Money flows are positive in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:GOOG), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA).
– Money flows are negative in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META).
– Money flows are mixed in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks:
– The momo crowd is buying stocks early in the trading session.
– Smart money’s activity is not specified. To access the locked content, a free trial must be started.
Gold:
– The momo crowd is buying gold early in the trading session.
– Smart money’s activity is not specified.
Oil:
– OPEC+ has decided to maintain current production levels.
– API crude inventories showed a draw of 4.210 million barrels, deviating from the consensus of a draw of 0.092M barrels.
– The momo crowd is buying oil early in the trading session.
– Smart money’s activity is not specified.
Bitcoin:
– Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is trading within a range.
Markets:
– The very short-term early stock market indicator depends on current conditions.
– It is crucial to look ahead and focus on upcoming opportunities rather than reflecting on past events.
Protection Band And What To Do Now:
– It is advised to hold onto good long-term positions unless individual risk preference advises otherwise.
– Based on risk preference, consider holding cash, Treasury bills, or engaging in short-term tactical trades.
– Adjust hedge levels by adding cash to determine appropriate protection bands.
– Holding enough cash is essential for taking advantage of new opportunities.
– When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting stop quantities and allowing more flexibility for high beta stocks.
– For a traditional 60/40 portfolio, long-duration bonds are not favored at this time. Consider focusing on high-quality bonds with a duration of five years or less.
